🔗 Share this article

Shutdowns have become a recurring feature of US politics – but this one feels particularly intractable due to shifting political forces along with bad blood among both major parties.

Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 people likely to be placed on furlough without pay since both political parties can't agree on a spending bill.

Votes aimed at ending the deadlock continue to fall short, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path this time as both parties – including the nation's leader – can see some merit in digging in.

Here are several key factors that make things feel different in 2025.

1. For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – not just healthcare

The Democratic base have insisted over recent periods for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Well now the party leadership have an opportunity to demonstrate their responsiveness.

In March, the Senate's top Democrat was fiercely criticised for helping pass a Republican spending bill and averting a government closure early this year. This time he's digging in.

This presents an opportunity for the Democratic party to demonstrate their ability to reclaim certain authority from a presidency that has moved aggressively on its agenda.

Refusing to back the Republican spending plan carries electoral dangers as citizens generally may become impatient with prolonged negotiations and consequences begin to mount.

The Democrats are using the budget standoff to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies together with GOP-backed government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.

Additionally, they're attempting to curtail the President's use of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and various federal programs.

Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity

The President along with a senior aide have openly indicated their perspective that they perceive an opening to advance further the cutbacks in government employment implemented during the current presidential term to date.

The President himself said last week that the government closure had afforded him a "unique chance", and that he would look to cut "opposition-supported departments".

The White House said it would be left with the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson described this as "fiscal sanity".

The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, but the White House have been consulting with the Office of Management and Budget, the budgeting office, which is headed by the administration's budget director.

The budget director has already announced the halting of government financial support for Democratic-run parts of the country, including New York City and Chicago.

Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side

Whereas past government closures have been characterised by late-night talks between the two parties in an effort to get federal operations, currently there seems little of the same spirit for compromise presently.

Conversely, animosity prevails. The bad blood continued over the weekend, as both sides blaming each other for causing the impasse.

House Speaker from the majority party, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and holding out during discussions "for electoral protection".

Meanwhile, the Senate leader made similar charges at the other side, stating how a Republican promise regarding health funding talks once the government reopens can not be taken seriously.

The administration leader personally has escalated tensions through sharing a controversial AI-generated image of the Senate leader and the top Democrat opposition figure, where the representative is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and facial hair.

The affected legislator and other Democrats denounced this as discriminatory, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.

4. The US economy is fragile

Experts project approximately two-fifths of the federal workforce – over 800,000 workers – to be put on unpaid leave as a result of the government closure.

This will reduce consumer expenditure – and also have wider ramifications, including halted environmental approvals, patent approvals, interrupted vendor payments and other kinds of government activity tied to business cease functioning.

The closure additionally introduces fresh instability into an economy already being roiled from multiple factors including trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and technological advancements.

Economic forecasters project that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth weekly during the closure.

But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity following resolution, as it would after disruption after major environmental events.

That could be one reason why financial markets has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.

Conversely, analysts say should administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, the damage could be extended in duration.